| Impact Data Summary (CERF, EM-DAT, CERF Hypothesis) | |||||||||||
| 1991–2024 | Priority 1 = CERF hypothesis | Priority 2 = 3/3 countries EM-DAT expanded | |||||||||||
| Year | CERF | EM-DAT (reported) | EM-DAT (expanded) | Priority | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HND | GTM | SLV | Hypothesis | HND | GTM | SLV | HND | GTM | SLV | ||
| 1991 | |||||||||||
| 1992 | |||||||||||
| 1993 | |||||||||||
| 1994 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 2 | ||||
| 1995 | |||||||||||
| 1996 | |||||||||||
| 1997 | ✓ | ✓ | |||||||||
| 1998 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ||||||||
| 1999 | |||||||||||
| 2000 | ✓ | ✓ | |||||||||
| 2001 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 2 | ||||
| 2002 | ✓ | ✓ | |||||||||
| 2003 | ✓ | ||||||||||
| 2004 | ✓ | ✓ | |||||||||
| 2005 | |||||||||||
| 2006 | |||||||||||
| 2007 | |||||||||||
| 2008 | |||||||||||
| 2009 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 1 | |
| 2010 | ✓ | ✓ | |||||||||
| 2011 | ✓ | ||||||||||
| 2012 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | |||||||
| 2013 | |||||||||||
| 2014 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 1 | |||
| 2015 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 1 | |||
| 2016 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ||||||||
| 2017 | |||||||||||
| 2018 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 1 | |||
| 2019 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 2 | |||||
| 2020 | |||||||||||
| 2021 | |||||||||||
| 2022 | |||||||||||
| 2023 | ✓ | ✓ | |||||||||
| 2024 | |||||||||||
9 Trigger Configuration: HND & SLV
9.1 Overview
?sec-honduras-trigger developed a purely rainfall-based trigger optimization for Honduras, defining drought as the N driest ERA5 years (matched return period). This chapter takes a different approach: we begin with humanitarian impact data to identify which years must be triggered, then layer in ERA5 rainfall skill to select the final configuration
The key insight motivating this approach is that seasonal rainfall forecasts are an imperfect proxy for drought impact. EM-DAT records and CERF allocations provide direct evidence of when humanitarian consequences occurred. Rather than optimizing solely against observed rainfall, we first ensure our trigger catches the most consequential events, then optimize for rainfall prediction accuracy among configurations that meet that constraint.
This chapter covers Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala. For Guatemala, we evaluate two separate areas of interest: the standard OCHA AOI (Chiquimula and Alta Verapaz) and the StartNetwork AOI (Quiché and Baja Verapaz).
9.2 Impact Data Landscape
Before defining trigger thresholds, we examine the historical record of drought impacts across the dry corridor. From this evidence we define two priority classes for the trigger optimization:
Priority 1 (must-hit): The CERF hypothesis years — 2009, 2014, 2015, 2018. These are the years where CERF actually allocated drought funding (adjusted for delayed response timing). They represent donor-validated humanitarian crises where we have the strongest obligation to trigger.
Priority 2 (should-hit): Years where all 3 countries appear in EM-DAT expanded drought records but are not CERF hypothesis years — 1994, 2001, 2019. Regional consensus across all three countries indicates widespread drought conditions, even without CERF activation.
Table 9.1 shows the full landscape of CERF allocations, EM-DAT entries (both as-reported and expanded across multi-year events), and the resulting priority classification for 1991–2024.
9.3 Rainfall vs Impact Alignment
A key question is whether seasonal rainfall alone can predict humanitarian impact. The tables below show per-country validation: for each year, we compare ERA5 observed rainfall ranking with CERF allocations, EM-DAT records, and total affected population.
The validation tables below cross-reference each year’s primera and postrera rainfall dry rank with CERF allocations, EM-DAT records, and total affected population. Years are sorted by maximum seasonal dryness rank so the most extreme rainfall years appear first. A mismatch between dry rank and impact columns indicates that rainfall alone is not a reliable predictor of humanitarian consequences.
| Impact Validation: HND (1991–2024) | ||||||||
| Sorted by max_rp (desc) | ||||||||
| Year | CERF | EM-DAT Affected | ERA5 Obs RP | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Regional | Hypothesis | Reported | Interpolated | Pri | Post | Max | |
| 1994 | 35.0 | 3.2 | 35.0 | |||||
| 2012 | 1.3 | 35.0 | 35.0 | |||||
| 1992 | 5.0 | 17.5 | 17.5 | |||||
| 2001 | 17.5 | 5.0 | 17.5 | |||||
| 2004 | 11.7 | 4.4 | 11.7 | |||||
| 2021 | 3.5 | 11.7 | 11.7 | |||||
| 2000 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 8.8 | |||||
| 2009 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 1.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | ||
| 1991 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 7.0 | |||||
| 2002 | 1.6 | 7.0 | 7.0 | |||||
| 2019 | ✓ | 5.8 | 1.9 | 5.8 | ||||
| 2015 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 4.4 | 1.5 | 4.4 | ||
| 2014 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 3.9 | 1.4 | 3.9 | ||
| 2003 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 3.5 | |||||
| 2013 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 3.2 | |||||
| 1997 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.9 | |||||
| 2010 | ✓ | ✓ | 1.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 | |||
| 2016 | ✓ | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.7 | ||||
| 2023 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 2.7 | |||||
| 1993 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2.5 | |||||
| 2006 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |||||
| 2018 | ✓ | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | ||||
| 1998 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 2.2 | |||||
| 1999 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.8 | |||||
| 2005 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 | |||||
| 2007 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | |||||
| 2011 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.7 | |||||
| 1995 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | |||||
| 2008 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | |||||
| 1996 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | |||||
| 2020 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | |||||
| 2024 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | |||||
| 2017 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | |||||
| 2022 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | |||||
| Impact Validation: SLV (1991–2024) | ||||||||
| Sorted by max_rp (desc) | ||||||||
| Year | CERF | EM-DAT Affected | ERA5 Obs RP | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Regional | Hypothesis | Reported | Interpolated | Pri | Post | Max | |
| 2012 | 3.2 | 35.0 | 35.0 | |||||
| 2015 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 35.0 | 1.2 | 35.0 | ||
| 1994 | 17.5 | 4.4 | 17.5 | |||||
| 2021 | 1.5 | 17.5 | 17.5 | |||||
| 1997 | 11.7 | 2.1 | 11.7 | |||||
| 2001 | 7.0 | 11.7 | 11.7 | |||||
| 1991 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | |||||
| 2018 | ✓ | 8.8 | 1.5 | 8.8 | ||||
| 2016 | ✓ | 4.4 | 7.0 | 7.0 | ||||
| 2009 | ✓ | ✓ | 2.3 | 5.8 | 5.8 | |||
| 1992 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | |||||
| 2023 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 5.0 | |||||
| 2003 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | |||||
| 2014 | ✓ | ✓ | 3.9 | 1.8 | 3.9 | |||
| 2000 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 3.5 | |||||
| 2002 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | |||||
| 2010 | ✓ | 1.0 | 3.2 | 3.2 | ||||
| 2013 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | |||||
| 2019 | ✓ | ✓ | 2.9 | 1.6 | 2.9 | |||
| 2006 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.5 | |||||
| 2004 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |||||
| 1993 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | |||||
| 1998 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 1.8 | |||||
| 1996 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.8 | |||||
| 2007 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.7 | |||||
| 2017 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | |||||
| 1999 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.6 | |||||
| 2024 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | |||||
| 2005 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | |||||
| 2011 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | |||||
| 1995 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.3 | |||||
| 2022 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | |||||
| 2020 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | |||||
| 2008 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | |||||
| Impact Validation: GTM (1991–2024) | ||||||||
| Sorted by max_rp (desc) | ||||||||
| Year | CERF | EM-DAT Affected | ERA5 Obs RP | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Regional | Hypothesis | Reported | Interpolated | Pri | Post | Max | |
| 2019 | ✓ | ✓ | 35.0 | 2.2 | 35.0 | |||
| 2021 | 1.8 | 35.0 | 35.0 | |||||
| 1994 | 17.5 | 5.8 | 17.5 | |||||
| 2012 | 1.3 | 17.5 | 17.5 | |||||
| 2004 | 2.3 | 11.7 | 11.7 | |||||
| 2015 | ✓ | ✓ | 11.7 | 1.2 | 11.7 | |||
| 2010 | ✓ | 1.0 | 8.8 | 8.8 | ||||
| 2023 | 8.8 | 1.6 | 8.8 | |||||
| 2009 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 2.7 | 7.0 | 7.0 | ||
| 2018 | ✓ | 7.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | ||||
| 1998 | 5.8 | 1.1 | 5.8 | |||||
| 1991 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 5.0 | |||||
| 2002 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 4.4 | |||||
| 1992 | 1.5 | 3.9 | 3.9 | |||||
| 2016 | ✓ | ✓ | 3.9 | 2.7 | 3.9 | |||
| 2001 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 3.5 | |||||
| 1993 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | |||||
| 2003 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 3.2 | |||||
| 1997 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 2.9 | |||||
| 2005 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2.5 | |||||
| 2007 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 2.5 | |||||
| 2006 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |||||
| 2024 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 2.2 | |||||
| 1999 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 2.1 | |||||
| 2000 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | |||||
| 2011 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.9 | |||||
| 1995 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | |||||
| 2014 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.8 | ||
| 1996 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | |||||
| 2008 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.7 | |||||
| 2022 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.6 | |||||
| 2017 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 | |||||
| 2013 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.4 | |||||
| 2020 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.2 | |||||
| Impact Validation: GTM (1991–2024) | ||||||||
| Sorted by max_rp (desc) | ||||||||
| Year | CERF | EM-DAT Affected | ERA5 Obs RP | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Regional | Hypothesis | Reported | Interpolated | Pri | Post | Max | |
| 1994 | 35.0 | 7.0 | 35.0 | |||||
| 2021 | 1.5 | 35.0 | 35.0 | |||||
| 2012 | 1.1 | 17.5 | 17.5 | |||||
| 2019 | ✓ | ✓ | 17.5 | 1.9 | 17.5 | |||
| 2004 | 11.7 | 5.0 | 11.7 | |||||
| 2009 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 2.5 | 11.7 | 11.7 | ||
| 1991 | 5.0 | 8.8 | 8.8 | |||||
| 2015 | ✓ | ✓ | 8.8 | 1.5 | 8.8 | |||
| 2002 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 7.0 | |||||
| 2016 | ✓ | ✓ | 3.5 | 5.8 | 5.8 | |||
| 2023 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 5.8 | |||||
| 2018 | ✓ | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | ||||
| 2003 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 3.9 | |||||
| 2010 | ✓ | 1.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | ||||
| 1993 | 1.3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | |||||
| 1992 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 3.2 | |||||
| 2007 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 3.2 | |||||
| 1998 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 2.9 | |||||
| 2006 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 2.9 | |||||
| 1997 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 2.7 | |||||
| 2001 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |||||
| 1996 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | |||||
| 1999 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 2.2 | |||||
| 2005 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | |||||
| 2014 | ✓ | ✓ | ✓ | 2.1 | 1.2 | 2.1 | ||
| 2022 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.9 | |||||
| 2017 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.8 | |||||
| 2024 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.8 | |||||
| 2000 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.8 | |||||
| 2011 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.7 | |||||
| 1995 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | |||||
| 2008 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | |||||
| 2020 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | |||||
| 2013 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | |||||
These tables demonstrate a recurring pattern: some of the most impactful drought years (e.g. those with CERF allocations or high total affected) do not always coincide with the driest rainfall years, and vice versa. This imperfect correlation between rainfall and impact is the primary motivation for our hybrid optimization approach.
9.4 Optimization Strategy
Given that rainfall is an imperfect predictor of humanitarian impact, we adopt a staged optimization that prioritizes impact evidence first, then maximizes rainfall prediction skill:
Impact-first filtering: Evaluate all threshold configurations against EM-DAT impact years using standard F1. Keep only configs that trigger in all Priority 1 years (must-hit). Among those, keep configs with the maximum Priority 2 hits (should-hit).
ERA5 rainfall evaluation: For the surviving candidate pool, evaluate against ERA5 observed rainfall using the tolerant matched-RP F1 from ?sec-honduras-trigger. This tells us how well each config predicts actual rainfall anomalies, independent of the impact definition.
Combined selection: Plot impact F1 against ERA5 tolerant F1 to visualize the tradeoff. Compute an average of both F1 scores and identify the best-performing config at each return period level. Among tied configs, select the one with the lowest threshold coefficient of variation (most operationally uniform thresholds).
The rationale is straightforward: since SEAS5 forecasts are our only trigger variable, and they predict rainfall rather than impact directly, it makes sense to first ensure we capture the most consequential events (via impact filtering), then optimize for what the forecast actually predicts well (rainfall). After the priority-hit filters are satisfied, a high ERA5 tolerant F1 indicates the trigger is selecting genuinely dry years rather than succeeding on impact years by coincidence.
9.5 Country-Specific Results
Honduras uses departments El Paraiso (HN07) and Francisco Morazan (HN08) as the area of interest, with 3 primera leadtimes and 3 postrera leadtimes. EM-DAT records 17 impact years in 1991–2024, giving an empirical impact RP of 3.0 years.
Impact Evaluation & Priority Filtering
After generating 8,526 constrained configurations and evaluating against impact years, priority filtering retains 2,613 candidates that hit 100% of Priority 1 years and 67% of Priority 2 years.
ERA5 Evaluation & Combined Scoring
The plot below shows each candidate configuration positioned by its ERA5 tolerant F1 (x-axis) and impact F1 (y-axis). Configurations near the top-right corner perform well on both metrics. Circled points mark selected options per RP level: A = best average F1, B = best ERA5 tolerant F1. Yellow halos mark fully uniform configs (all thresholds equal across all leadtimes and seasons) — an operationally favourable baseline that simplifies trigger communication. Uniform configs are drawn from the pre-filter pool (before must-hit/should-hit filtering) so stricter options that wouldn’t pass priority filters are still visible as reference points. Hover over any point for details; click circled or haloed points to view the full per-leadtime activation table.
| Honduras: Configuration Summary | ||||||
| # | Config | Annual RP | Primera RP | Postrera RP | Primera Thresholds | Postrera Thresholds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RP 2.7 A | 2.69 | 3.50 | 3.89 | LT0: 4.4 | LT1: 5.8 | LT2: 7.0 | LT0: 4.4 | LT1: 5.8 | LT2: 7.0 |
| 2 | RP 2.7 (Uniform thresh 5.0) | 2.69 | 3.18 | 3.89 | LT0: 5.0 | LT1: 5.0 | LT2: 5.0 | LT0: 5.0 | LT1: 5.0 | LT2: 5.0 |
| 3 | RP 2.9 B | 2.92 | 3.50 | 3.89 | LT0: 5.0 | LT1: 5.8 | LT2: 7.0 | LT0: 5.8 | LT1: 5.8 | LT2: 5.8 |
| 4 | RP 3.2 B | 3.18 | 3.50 | 5.83 | LT0: 5.0 | LT1: 5.8 | LT2: 7.0 | LT0: 8.8 | LT1: 8.8 | LT2: 8.8 |
| 5 | RP 2.5 (Uniform thresh 4.4) | 2.50 | 3.18 | 3.50 | LT0: 4.4 | LT1: 4.4 | LT2: 4.4 | LT0: 4.4 | LT1: 4.4 | LT2: 4.4 |
| 6 | RP 2.7 (Uniform thresh 5.8) | 2.69 | 3.50 | 3.89 | LT0: 5.8 | LT1: 5.8 | LT2: 5.8 | LT0: 5.8 | LT1: 5.8 | LT2: 5.8 |
| 7 | RP 2.9 A | 2.92 | 3.18 | 7.00 | LT0: 5.0 | LT1: 5.8 | LT2: 5.8 | LT0: 8.8 | LT1: 11.7 | LT2: 11.7 |
| 8 | RP 3.2 A | 3.18 | 3.50 | 7.00 | LT0: 5.0 | LT1: 5.8 | LT2: 8.8 | LT0: 8.8 | LT1: 11.7 | LT2: 11.7 |
| 9 | RP 3.5 A | 3.50 | 3.50 | 8.75 | LT0: 5.0 | LT1: 5.8 | LT2: 17.5 | LT0: 17.5 | LT1: 17.5 | LT2: 17.5 |
| 10 | RP 3.5 (Uniform thresh 7.0) | 3.50 | 4.38 | 5.00 | LT0: 7.0 | LT1: 7.0 | LT2: 7.0 | LT0: 7.0 | LT1: 7.0 | LT2: 7.0 |
| 11 | RP 3.5 (Uniform thresh 8.8) | 3.50 | 4.38 | 5.83 | LT0: 8.8 | LT1: 8.8 | LT2: 8.8 | LT0: 8.8 | LT1: 8.8 | LT2: 8.8 |
| 12 | RP 3.9 (Uniform thresh 11.7) | 3.89 | 5.00 | 7.00 | LT0: 11.7 | LT1: 11.7 | LT2: 11.7 | LT0: 11.7 | LT1: 11.7 | LT2: 11.7 |
| 13 | RP 5.8 (Uniform thresh 17.5) | 5.83 | 7.00 | 8.75 | LT0: 17.5 | LT1: 17.5 | LT2: 17.5 | LT0: 17.5 | LT1: 17.5 | LT2: 17.5 |
Trigger Activation Detail (per leadtime)
Click a circled point on the tradeoff plot above to swap the detailed per-leadtime activation table below.
| Trigger Activation: HND (1991–2024) | ||||||||||||
| Green = trigger fires at that leadtime | Annual RP = 2.92 (RP 2.9 A) | ||||||||||||
| Reported | Interpolated | LT0 (May) RP 5.0 | LT1 (Apr) RP 5.8 | LT2 (Mar) RP 5.8 | LT0 (Sep) RP 8.8 | LT1 (Aug) RP 11.7 | LT2 (Jul) RP 11.7 | Pri | Post | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activation Summary
| Honduras: Activation Summary | ||||||||||||||||||
| Pr = primera only | Pst = postrera only | Pr+Pst = both seasons | ||||||||||||||||||
| Year | P | CERF | EM-DAT | ERA5 Obs RP | Activation | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pri | Post | RP 2.7 A | RP 2.9 A | RP 2.9 B | RP 3.2 A | RP 3.2 B | RP 3.5 A | RP 2.5 (Uniform thresh 4.4) | RP 2.7 (Uniform thresh 5.0) | RP 2.7 (Uniform thresh 5.8) | RP 3.5 (Uniform thresh 7.0) | RP 3.5 (Uniform thresh 8.8) | RP 3.9 (Uniform thresh 11.7) | RP 5.8 (Uniform thresh 17.5) | ||||
| 1991 | 7.0 | 5.8 | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | |||
| 1992 | 5.0 | 17.5 | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | |||||
| 1994 | P2 | 35.0 | 3.2 | Pr+Pst | Pr | Pr+Pst | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr | Pr | Pr | ||
| 1997 | 2.9 | 2.1 | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | |||
| 2002 | 1.6 | 7.0 | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | |||||||||||
| 2006 | 2.1 | 2.3 | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | ||||||||||||
| 2009 | P1 | ✓ | 1.8 | 8.8 | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | |
| 2012 | 1.3 | 35.0 | Pst | Pst | ||||||||||||||
| 2014 | P1 | ✓ | 3.9 | 1.4 | Pr | Pr | Pr+Pst | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | |||||
| 2015 | P1 | ✓ | 4.4 | 1.5 | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | |
| 2018 | P1 | 2.3 | 1.8 | Pr+Pst | Pr | Pr+Pst | Pr | Pr+Pst | Pr | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | ||||
| 2019 | P2 | 5.8 | 1.9 | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | ||
| 2021 | 3.5 | 11.7 | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | ||||
| 2023 | 2.7 | 1.3 | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | ||||
| 1993 | 1.1 | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||
| 1995 | 1.2 | 1.6 | ||||||||||||||||
| 1996 | 1.5 | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||||
| 1998 | 2.2 | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||
| 1999 | 1.8 | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2000 | 8.8 | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2001 | P2 | 17.5 | 5.0 | |||||||||||||||
| 2003 | 1.9 | 3.5 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2004 | 11.7 | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2005 | 1.1 | 1.8 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 1.7 | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 1.5 | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2010 | ✓ | 1.0 | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 1.1 | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 3.2 | 2.2 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 2.5 | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 1.2 | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2020 | 1.4 | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 1.2 | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 1.3 | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||
| Honduras: Topline Performance | ||||||||||||||
| 34-year record (1991–2024) | 17 EM-DAT impact years | ||||||||||||||
| P1 Caught | P2 Caught | TP | FP | FN | TN | F1 | TP | FP | FN | TN | F1 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primera Both Postrera Red outline = not all configs fire | ||||||||||||||
| 1 P1 = CERF-funded drought years (highest confidence). P2 = all 3 countries in EM-DAT (regional consensus). | ||||||||||||||
| 2 TP = trigger fires in an impact year. FP = fires in a non-impact year (may still be genuinely dry). FN = misses an impact year. | ||||||||||||||
| 3 ERA5: summed across primera + postrera. TP & FP shown as matched (tolerant). FN = matched only (tolerant FN equals matched by design). Tolerant = widened drought definition (RP − buffer). F1 computed from tolerant TP, tolerant FP, matched FN. | ||||||||||||||
| Honduras: Recommended Configurations | |||||||||||||||
| A = max avg F1 | B = max ERA5 tol F1 | U = uniform (all thresholds equal) | |||||||||||||||
| Return periods | Return periods | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| config_label | Postrera thresholds (RP) | Primera thresholds (RP) | annual_rp | Performance | |||||||||||
| Criterion | s0 | s1 | s2 | s_seasonal_rp | p0 | p1 | p2 | p_seasonal_rp | impact_f1 | era5_tol_f1 | avg_f1 | mean_cv | all_cv | ||
| RP 2.7 A | both | 4.375000 | 5.833333 | 7.000000 | 3.89 | 4.375000 | 5.833333 | 7.000000 | 3.50 | 2.69 | 0.566 | 0.679 | 0.622 | 0.229 | 0.205 |
| RP 2.9 A | max ERA5 tol F1 | 8.750000 | 11.666667 | 11.666667 | 7.00 | 5.000000 | 5.833333 | 5.833333 | 3.18 | 2.92 | 0.422 | 0.633 | 0.527 | 0.122 | 0.372 |
| RP 2.9 B | max avg F1 | 5.833333 | 5.833333 | 5.833333 | 3.89 | 5.000000 | 5.833333 | 7.000000 | 3.50 | 2.92 | 0.566 | 0.627 | 0.596 | 0.085 | 0.108 |
| RP 3.2 A | max ERA5 tol F1 | 8.750000 | 11.666667 | 11.666667 | 7.00 | 5.000000 | 5.833333 | 8.750000 | 3.50 | 3.18 | 0.433 | 0.636 | 0.535 | 0.230 | 0.326 |
| RP 3.2 B | max avg F1 | 8.750000 | 8.750000 | 8.750000 | 5.83 | 5.000000 | 5.833333 | 7.000000 | 3.50 | 3.18 | 0.470 | 0.614 | 0.542 | 0.085 | 0.226 |
| RP 3.5 A | both | 17.500000 | 17.500000 | 17.500000 | 8.75 | 5.000000 | 5.833333 | 17.500000 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 0.439 | 0.489 | 0.464 | 0.370 | 0.464 |
| RP 2.5 (Uniform thresh 4.4) | uniform | 4.375000 | 4.375000 | 4.375000 | 3.50 | 4.375000 | 4.375000 | 4.375000 | 3.18 | 2.50 | 0.582 | 0.646 | 0.614 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 2.7 (Uniform thresh 5.0) | uniform | 5.000000 | 5.000000 | 5.000000 | 3.89 | 5.000000 | 5.000000 | 5.000000 | 3.18 | 2.69 | 0.555 | 0.623 | 0.589 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 2.7 (Uniform thresh 5.8) | uniform | 5.833333 | 5.833333 | 5.833333 | 3.89 | 5.833333 | 5.833333 | 5.833333 | 3.50 | 2.69 | 0.528 | 0.596 | 0.562 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 3.5 (Uniform thresh 7.0) | uniform | 7.000000 | 7.000000 | 7.000000 | 5.00 | 7.000000 | 7.000000 | 7.000000 | 4.38 | 3.50 | 0.448 | 0.448 | 0.448 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 3.5 (Uniform thresh 8.8) | uniform | 8.750000 | 8.750000 | 8.750000 | 5.83 | 8.750000 | 8.750000 | 8.750000 | 4.38 | 3.50 | 0.414 | 0.414 | 0.414 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 3.9 (Uniform thresh 11.7) | uniform | 11.666667 | 11.666667 | 11.666667 | 7.00 | 11.666667 | 11.666667 | 11.666667 | 5.00 | 3.89 | 0.345 | 0.345 | 0.345 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 5.8 (Uniform thresh 17.5) | uniform | 17.500000 | 17.500000 | 17.500000 | 8.75 | 17.500000 | 17.500000 | 17.500000 | 7.00 | 5.83 | 0.325 | 0.325 | 0.325 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
El Salvador uses country-level (admin 0) aggregation with 3 primera leadtimes and 2 postrera leadtimes. EM-DAT records 8 impact years. We use a target RP of 3.
Impact Evaluation & Priority Filtering
After priority filtering, 1,381 candidates remain, hitting 100% of Priority 1 years and 67% of Priority 2 years.
ERA5 Evaluation & Combined Scoring
| El Salvador: Configuration Summary | ||||||
| # | Config | Annual RP | Primera RP | Postrera RP | Primera Thresholds | Postrera Thresholds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RP 2.9 A (uniform) | 2.92 | 3.89 | 3.89 | LT0: 5.0 | LT1: 5.0 | LT2: 5.0 | LT0: 5.0 | LT1: 5.0 |
| 2 | RP 2.7 A (uniform) | 2.69 | 3.50 | 3.89 | LT0: 4.4 | LT1: 4.4 | LT2: 4.4 | LT0: 4.4 | LT1: 4.4 |
| 3 | RP 3.2 A | 3.18 | 3.89 | 4.38 | LT0: 5.0 | LT1: 5.0 | LT2: 5.8 | LT0: 5.0 | LT1: 7.0 |
| 4 | RP 3.5 A | 3.50 | 3.89 | 5.00 | LT0: 5.0 | LT1: 5.0 | LT2: 5.8 | LT0: 5.8 | LT1: 7.0 |
| 5 | RP 3.5 (Uniform thresh 5.8) | 3.50 | 4.38 | 4.38 | LT0: 5.8 | LT1: 5.8 | LT2: 5.8 | LT0: 5.8 | LT1: 5.8 |
| 6 | RP 4.4 (Uniform thresh 7.0) | 4.38 | 4.38 | 5.83 | LT0: 7.0 | LT1: 7.0 | LT2: 7.0 | LT0: 7.0 | LT1: 7.0 |
| 7 | RP 4.4 (Uniform thresh 8.8) | 4.38 | 5.00 | 5.83 | LT0: 8.8 | LT1: 8.8 | LT2: 8.8 | LT0: 8.8 | LT1: 8.8 |
| 8 | RP 5.0 (Uniform thresh 11.7) | 5.00 | 5.83 | 8.75 | LT0: 11.7 | LT1: 11.7 | LT2: 11.7 | LT0: 11.7 | LT1: 11.7 |
| 9 | RP 5.8 (Uniform thresh 17.5) | 5.83 | 8.75 | 11.67 | LT0: 17.5 | LT1: 17.5 | LT2: 17.5 | LT0: 17.5 | LT1: 17.5 |
Trigger Activation Detail (per leadtime)
Click a circled point on the tradeoff plot above to swap the detailed per-leadtime activation table below.
| Trigger Activation: SLV (1991–2024) | |||||||||||
| Green = trigger fires at that leadtime | Annual RP = 2.92 (RP 2.9 A) | |||||||||||
| Reported | Interpolated | LT0 (May) RP 5.0 | LT1 (Apr) RP 5.0 | LT2 (Mar) RP 5.0 | LT0 (Sep) RP 5.0 | LT1 (Aug) RP 5.0 | Pri | Post | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activation Summary
| El Salvador: Activation Summary | ||||||||||||||||
| Pr = primera only | Pst = postrera only | Pr+Pst = both seasons | ||||||||||||||||
| Year | P | CERF | EM-DAT | ERA5 Obs RP | Activation | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pri | Post | RP 2.7 A | RP 2.9 A | RP 3.2 A | RP 3.5 A | RP 2.7 (Uniform thresh 4.4) | RP 2.9 (Uniform thresh 5.0) | RP 3.5 (Uniform thresh 5.8) | RP 4.4 (Uniform thresh 7.0) | RP 4.4 (Uniform thresh 8.8) | RP 5.0 (Uniform thresh 11.7) | RP 5.8 (Uniform thresh 17.5) | ||||
| 1991 | 5.8 | 8.8 | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pst | |||
| 1992 | 2.1 | 5.0 | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | |||||||
| 1994 | P2 | 17.5 | 4.4 | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | ||||
| 1997 | 11.7 | 2.1 | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | |||
| 2002 | 2.7 | 3.5 | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | |||||||||
| 2009 | P1 | 2.3 | 5.8 | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | ||
| 2012 | 3.2 | 35.0 | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | |||||||||
| 2014 | P1 | 3.9 | 1.8 | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | |||
| 2015 | P1 | ✓ | 35.0 | 1.2 | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr | |
| 2018 | P1 | 8.8 | 1.5 | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr | Pr | ||
| 2019 | P2 | ✓ | 2.9 | 1.6 | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | |
| 2021 | 1.5 | 17.5 | Pr | Pr | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | 5.0 | 2.2 | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | ||||||||
| 1993 | 1.5 | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||
| 1995 | 1.1 | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||
| 1996 | 1.2 | 1.8 | ||||||||||||||
| 1998 | 1.8 | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||
| 1999 | 1.6 | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||
| 2000 | 3.5 | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||
| 2001 | P2 | 7.0 | 11.7 | |||||||||||||
| 2003 | 1.9 | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||
| 2004 | 2.2 | 2.3 | ||||||||||||||
| 2005 | 1.1 | 1.3 | ||||||||||||||
| 2006 | 1.8 | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||
| 2007 | 1.7 | 1.5 | ||||||||||||||
| 2008 | 1.2 | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||
| 2010 | 1.0 | 3.2 | ||||||||||||||
| 2011 | 1.3 | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||
| 2013 | 2.5 | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||
| 2016 | 4.4 | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||
| 2017 | 1.4 | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||
| 2020 | 1.2 | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 1.3 | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 1.1 | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||
| El Salvador: Recommended Configurations | ||||||||||||||
| A = max avg F1 | B = max ERA5 tol F1 | U = uniform (all thresholds equal) | ||||||||||||||
| Return periods | Return periods | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| config_label | Postrera thresholds (RP) | Primera thresholds (RP) | annual_rp | Performance | ||||||||||
| Criterion | s0 | s1 | s_seasonal_rp | p0 | p1 | p2 | p_seasonal_rp | impact_f1 | era5_tol_f1 | avg_f1 | mean_cv | all_cv | ||
| RP 2.7 A | both | 4.375000 | 4.375000 | 3.89 | 4.375000 | 4.375000 | 4.375000 | 3.50 | 2.69 | 0.513 | 0.697 | 0.605 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 2.9 A | both | 5.000000 | 5.000000 | 3.89 | 5.000000 | 5.000000 | 5.000000 | 3.89 | 2.92 | 0.529 | 0.737 | 0.633 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 3.2 A | both | 5.000000 | 7.000000 | 4.38 | 5.000000 | 5.000000 | 5.833333 | 3.89 | 3.18 | 0.544 | 0.734 | 0.639 | 0.163 | 0.158 |
| RP 3.5 A | both | 5.833333 | 7.000000 | 5.00 | 5.000000 | 5.000000 | 5.833333 | 3.89 | 3.50 | 0.561 | 0.688 | 0.624 | 0.110 | 0.143 |
| RP 2.7 (Uniform thresh 4.4) | uniform | 4.375000 | 4.375000 | 3.89 | 4.375000 | 4.375000 | 4.375000 | 3.50 | 2.69 | 0.513 | 0.697 | 0.605 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 2.9 (Uniform thresh 5.0) | uniform | 5.000000 | 5.000000 | 3.89 | 5.000000 | 5.000000 | 5.000000 | 3.89 | 2.92 | 0.529 | 0.737 | 0.633 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 3.5 (Uniform thresh 5.8) | uniform | 5.833333 | 5.833333 | 4.38 | 5.833333 | 5.833333 | 5.833333 | 4.38 | 3.50 | 0.562 | 0.647 | 0.605 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 4.4 (Uniform thresh 7.0) | uniform | 7.000000 | 7.000000 | 5.83 | 7.000000 | 7.000000 | 7.000000 | 4.38 | 4.38 | 0.598 | 0.520 | 0.559 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 4.4 (Uniform thresh 8.8) | uniform | 8.750000 | 8.750000 | 5.83 | 8.750000 | 8.750000 | 8.750000 | 5.00 | 4.38 | 0.619 | 0.452 | 0.536 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 5.0 (Uniform thresh 11.7) | uniform | 11.666667 | 11.666667 | 8.75 | 11.666667 | 11.666667 | 11.666667 | 5.83 | 5.00 | 0.452 | 0.452 | 0.452 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 5.8 (Uniform thresh 17.5) | uniform | 17.500000 | 17.500000 | 11.67 | 17.500000 | 17.500000 | 17.500000 | 8.75 | 5.83 | 0.424 | 0.424 | 0.424 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| El Salvador: Topline Performance | ||||||||||||||
| 34-year record (1991–2024) | 8 EM-DAT impact years | ||||||||||||||
| P1 Caught | P2 Caught | TP | FP | FN | TN | F1 | TP | FP | FN | TN | F1 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primera Both Postrera Red outline = not all configs fire | ||||||||||||||
| 1 P1 = CERF-funded drought years (highest confidence). P2 = all 3 countries in EM-DAT (regional consensus). | ||||||||||||||
| 2 TP = trigger fires in an impact year. FP = fires in a non-impact year (may still be genuinely dry). FN = misses an impact year. | ||||||||||||||
| 3 ERA5: summed across primera + postrera. TP & FP shown as matched (tolerant). FN = matched only (tolerant FN equals matched by design). Tolerant = widened drought definition (RP − buffer). F1 computed from tolerant TP, tolerant FP, matched FN. | ||||||||||||||
Guatemala uses departments Chiquimula (GT20) and Alta Verapaz (GT16) as the area of interest, with 3 primera leadtimes and 2 postrera leadtimes. EM-DAT records 9 impact years in 1991–2024, giving an empirical impact RP of 3.0 years.
Impact Evaluation & Priority Filtering
After generating 2,772 constrained configurations and evaluating against impact years, priority filtering retains 28 candidates that hit 100% of Priority 1 years and 67% of Priority 2 years.
ERA5 Evaluation & Combined Scoring
| Guatemala: Configuration Summary | ||||||
| # | Config | Annual RP | Primera RP | Postrera RP | Primera Thresholds | Postrera Thresholds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RP 2.3 (Uniform thresh 4.4) | 2.33 | 2.92 | 3.89 | LT0: 4.4 | LT1: 4.4 | LT2: 4.4 | LT0: 4.4 | LT1: 4.4 |
| 2 | RP 2.7 A | 2.69 | 3.50 | 3.89 | LT0: 4.4 | LT1: 5.8 | LT2: 5.8 | LT0: 4.4 | LT1: 4.4 |
| 3 | RP 2.7 (Uniform thresh 5.0) | 2.69 | 3.50 | 4.38 | LT0: 5.0 | LT1: 5.0 | LT2: 5.0 | LT0: 5.0 | LT1: 5.0 |
| 4 | RP 2.9 A | 2.92 | 3.89 | 3.89 | LT0: 4.4 | LT1: 11.7 | LT2: 17.5 | LT0: 4.4 | LT1: 4.4 |
| 5 | RP 3.2 (Uniform thresh 5.8) | 3.18 | 3.89 | 5.00 | LT0: 5.8 | LT1: 5.8 | LT2: 5.8 | LT0: 5.8 | LT1: 5.8 |
| 6 | RP 3.2 (Uniform thresh 7.0) | 3.18 | 3.89 | 5.83 | LT0: 7.0 | LT1: 7.0 | LT2: 7.0 | LT0: 7.0 | LT1: 7.0 |
| 7 | RP 3.5 (Uniform thresh 8.8) | 3.50 | 4.38 | 5.83 | LT0: 8.8 | LT1: 8.8 | LT2: 8.8 | LT0: 8.8 | LT1: 8.8 |
| 8 | RP 3.5 (Uniform thresh 11.7) | 3.50 | 5.00 | 5.83 | LT0: 11.7 | LT1: 11.7 | LT2: 11.7 | LT0: 11.7 | LT1: 11.7 |
| 9 | RP 4.4 (Uniform thresh 17.5) | 4.38 | 7.00 | 8.75 | LT0: 17.5 | LT1: 17.5 | LT2: 17.5 | LT0: 17.5 | LT1: 17.5 |
Trigger Activation Detail (per leadtime)
Click a circled point on the tradeoff plot above to swap the detailed per-leadtime activation table below.
| Trigger Activation: GTM (1991–2024) | |||||||||||
| Green = trigger fires at that leadtime | Annual RP = 2.92 (RP 2.9 A) | |||||||||||
| Reported | Interpolated | LT0 (May) RP 4.4 | LT1 (Apr) RP 11.7 | LT2 (Mar) RP 17.5 | LT0 (Sep) RP 4.4 | LT1 (Aug) RP 4.4 | Pri | Post | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activation Summary
| Guatemala: Activation Summary | ||||||||||||||
| Pr = primera only | Pst = postrera only | Pr+Pst = both seasons | ||||||||||||||
| Year | P | CERF | EM-DAT | ERA5 Obs RP | Activation | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pri | Post | RP 2.7 A | RP 2.9 A | RP 2.3 (Uniform thresh 4.4) | RP 2.7 (Uniform thresh 5.0) | RP 3.2 (Uniform thresh 5.8) | RP 3.2 (Uniform thresh 7.0) | RP 3.5 (Uniform thresh 8.8) | RP 3.5 (Uniform thresh 11.7) | RP 4.4 (Uniform thresh 17.5) | ||||
| 1991 | 5.0 | 4.4 | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pst | Pst | |||
| 1992 | 1.5 | 3.9 | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | ||||
| 1994 | P2 | 17.5 | 5.8 | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | ||
| 1997 | 2.9 | 1.5 | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | |||
| 2006 | 1.1 | 2.3 | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | |||||
| 2008 | 1.7 | 1.1 | Pr | |||||||||||
| 2009 | P1 | ✓ | 2.7 | 7.0 | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | |
| 2012 | 1.3 | 17.5 | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pst | ||||||||
| 2014 | P1 | ✓ | 1.8 | 1.2 | Pst | Pst | Pst | |||||||
| 2015 | P1 | 11.7 | 1.2 | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pst | ||
| 2018 | P1 | 7.0 | 5.0 | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr | ||
| 2019 | P2 | ✓ | 35.0 | 2.2 | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | ||||
| 2021 | 1.8 | 35.0 | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | |||
| 2022 | 1.6 | 1.3 | Pr | Pr | ||||||||||
| 2023 | 8.8 | 1.6 | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | |||
| 1993 | 1.2 | 3.2 | ||||||||||||
| 1995 | 1.4 | 1.8 | ||||||||||||
| 1996 | 1.3 | 1.7 | ||||||||||||
| 1998 | 5.8 | 1.1 | ||||||||||||
| 1999 | 2.1 | 1.2 | ||||||||||||
| 2000 | 1.5 | 2.1 | ||||||||||||
| 2001 | P2 | 3.5 | 2.9 | |||||||||||
| 2002 | 4.4 | 3.5 | ||||||||||||
| 2003 | 3.2 | 1.9 | ||||||||||||
| 2004 | 2.3 | 11.7 | ||||||||||||
| 2005 | 1.1 | 2.5 | ||||||||||||
| 2007 | 2.5 | 1.8 | ||||||||||||
| 2010 | 1.0 | 8.8 | ||||||||||||
| 2011 | 1.9 | 1.1 | ||||||||||||
| 2013 | 1.1 | 1.4 | ||||||||||||
| 2016 | ✓ | 3.9 | 2.7 | |||||||||||
| 2017 | 1.2 | 1.5 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | 1.2 | 1.0 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | 2.2 | 1.3 | ||||||||||||
| Guatemala: Recommended Configurations | ||||||||||||||
| A = max avg F1 | B = max ERA5 tol F1 | U = uniform (all thresholds equal) | ||||||||||||||
| Return periods | Return periods | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| config_label | Postrera thresholds (RP) | Primera thresholds (RP) | annual_rp | Performance | ||||||||||
| Criterion | s0 | s1 | s_seasonal_rp | p0 | p1 | p2 | p_seasonal_rp | impact_f1 | era5_tol_f1 | avg_f1 | mean_cv | all_cv | ||
| RP 2.7 A | both | 4.375000 | 4.375000 | 3.89 | 4.375000 | 5.833333 | 5.833333 | 3.50 | 2.69 | 0.649 | 0.667 | 0.658 | 0.079 | 0.161 |
| RP 2.9 A | both | 4.375000 | 4.375000 | 3.89 | 4.375000 | 11.666667 | 17.500000 | 3.89 | 2.92 | 0.667 | 0.667 | 0.667 | 0.294 | 0.705 |
| RP 2.3 (Uniform thresh 4.4) | uniform | 4.375000 | 4.375000 | 3.89 | 4.375000 | 4.375000 | 4.375000 | 2.92 | 2.33 | 0.619 | 0.613 | 0.616 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 2.7 (Uniform thresh 5.0) | uniform | 5.000000 | 5.000000 | 4.38 | 5.000000 | 5.000000 | 5.000000 | 3.50 | 2.69 | 0.557 | 0.557 | 0.557 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 3.2 (Uniform thresh 5.8) | uniform | 5.833333 | 5.833333 | 5.00 | 5.833333 | 5.833333 | 5.833333 | 3.89 | 3.18 | 0.528 | 0.528 | 0.528 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 3.2 (Uniform thresh 7.0) | uniform | 7.000000 | 7.000000 | 5.83 | 7.000000 | 7.000000 | 7.000000 | 3.89 | 3.18 | 0.478 | 0.478 | 0.478 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 3.5 (Uniform thresh 8.8) | uniform | 8.750000 | 8.750000 | 5.83 | 8.750000 | 8.750000 | 8.750000 | 4.38 | 3.50 | 0.435 | 0.435 | 0.435 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 3.5 (Uniform thresh 11.7) | uniform | 11.666667 | 11.666667 | 5.83 | 11.666667 | 11.666667 | 11.666667 | 5.00 | 3.50 | 0.450 | 0.450 | 0.450 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 4.4 (Uniform thresh 17.5) | uniform | 17.500000 | 17.500000 | 8.75 | 17.500000 | 17.500000 | 17.500000 | 7.00 | 4.38 | 0.368 | 0.368 | 0.368 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
The StartNetwork Guatemala AOI uses departments Quiché (GT14) and Baja Verapaz (GT15), with 3 primera leadtimes and 2 postrera leadtimes. Impact years are drawn from the same country-level EM-DAT record (9 events, empirical RP = 3.0).
Impact Evaluation & Priority Filtering
After priority filtering, 84 candidates remain, hitting 100% of Priority 1 years and 100% of Priority 2 years.
ERA5 Evaluation & Combined Scoring
| Guatemala (StartNetwork): Configuration Summary | ||||||
| # | Config | Annual RP | Primera RP | Postrera RP | Primera Thresholds | Postrera Thresholds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RP 2.7 A | 2.69 | 4.38 | 3.18 | LT0: 4.4 | LT1: 5.8 | LT2: 7.0 | LT0: 4.4 | LT1: 5.0 |
| 2 | RP 2.9 A | 2.92 | 4.38 | 3.50 | LT0: 4.4 | LT1: 5.8 | LT2: 7.0 | LT0: 4.4 | LT1: 5.8 |
| 3 | RP 2.9 (Uniform thresh 5.8) | 2.92 | 4.38 | 4.38 | LT0: 5.8 | LT1: 5.8 | LT2: 5.8 | LT0: 5.8 | LT1: 5.8 |
| 4 | RP 2.2 (Uniform thresh 4.4) | 2.19 | 3.18 | 3.18 | LT0: 4.4 | LT1: 4.4 | LT2: 4.4 | LT0: 4.4 | LT1: 4.4 |
| 5 | RP 2.5 (Uniform thresh 5.0) | 2.50 | 3.89 | 3.50 | LT0: 5.0 | LT1: 5.0 | LT2: 5.0 | LT0: 5.0 | LT1: 5.0 |
| 6 | RP 3.5 (Uniform thresh 7.0) | 3.50 | 5.00 | 5.83 | LT0: 7.0 | LT1: 7.0 | LT2: 7.0 | LT0: 7.0 | LT1: 7.0 |
| 7 | RP 3.9 (Uniform thresh 8.8) | 3.89 | 5.00 | 7.00 | LT0: 8.8 | LT1: 8.8 | LT2: 8.8 | LT0: 8.8 | LT1: 8.8 |
| 8 | RP 4.4 (Uniform thresh 11.7) | 4.38 | 7.00 | 7.00 | LT0: 11.7 | LT1: 11.7 | LT2: 11.7 | LT0: 11.7 | LT1: 11.7 |
| 9 | RP 5.0 (Uniform thresh 17.5) | 5.00 | 8.75 | 8.75 | LT0: 17.5 | LT1: 17.5 | LT2: 17.5 | LT0: 17.5 | LT1: 17.5 |
Trigger Activation Detail (per leadtime)
Click a circled point on the tradeoff plot above to swap the detailed per-leadtime activation table below.
| Trigger Activation: GTM (1991–2024) | |||||||||||
| Green = trigger fires at that leadtime | Annual RP = 2.92 (RP 2.9 A) | |||||||||||
| Reported | Interpolated | LT0 (May) RP 4.4 | LT1 (Apr) RP 5.8 | LT2 (Mar) RP 7.0 | LT0 (Sep) RP 4.4 | LT1 (Aug) RP 5.8 | Pri | Post | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Activation Summary
| Guatemala (StartNetwork): Activation Summary | ||||||||||||||
| Pr = primera only | Pst = postrera only | Pr+Pst = both seasons | ||||||||||||||
| Year | P | CERF | EM-DAT | ERA5 Obs RP | Activation | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pri | Post | RP 2.7 A | RP 2.9 A | RP 2.2 (Uniform thresh 4.4) | RP 2.5 (Uniform thresh 5.0) | RP 2.9 (Uniform thresh 5.8) | RP 3.5 (Uniform thresh 7.0) | RP 3.9 (Uniform thresh 8.8) | RP 4.4 (Uniform thresh 11.7) | RP 5.0 (Uniform thresh 17.5) | ||||
| 1991 | 5.0 | 8.8 | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pst | Pst | |||
| 1992 | 1.8 | 3.2 | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | |||
| 1994 | P2 | 35.0 | 7.0 | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | ||
| 1997 | 2.7 | 1.3 | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | |||
| 2001 | P2 | 2.3 | 2.3 | Pst | Pst | Pst | ||||||||
| 2002 | 7.0 | 2.5 | Pst | Pst | Pst | |||||||||
| 2006 | 1.1 | 2.9 | Pr | Pr | Pr | |||||||||
| 2009 | P1 | ✓ | 2.5 | 11.7 | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | |
| 2012 | 1.1 | 17.5 | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | ||||||
| 2014 | P1 | ✓ | 2.1 | 1.2 | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | Pst | |||||
| 2015 | P1 | 8.8 | 1.5 | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | ||
| 2018 | P1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | Pr+Pst | |||
| 2019 | P2 | ✓ | 17.5 | 1.9 | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | |||
| 2021 | 1.5 | 35.0 | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | Pr | |||
| 2022 | 1.9 | 1.2 | Pr | |||||||||||
| 2023 | 5.8 | 1.7 | Pr | Pr | ||||||||||
| 1993 | 1.3 | 3.5 | ||||||||||||
| 1995 | 1.5 | 1.4 | ||||||||||||
| 1996 | 1.3 | 2.2 | ||||||||||||
| 1998 | 2.9 | 1.0 | ||||||||||||
| 1999 | 2.2 | 1.3 | ||||||||||||
| 2000 | 1.6 | 1.8 | ||||||||||||
| 2003 | 3.9 | 2.7 | ||||||||||||
| 2004 | 11.7 | 5.0 | ||||||||||||
| 2005 | 1.2 | 2.1 | ||||||||||||
| 2007 | 3.2 | 1.6 | ||||||||||||
| 2008 | 1.4 | 1.1 | ||||||||||||
| 2010 | 1.0 | 3.9 | ||||||||||||
| 2011 | 1.7 | 1.1 | ||||||||||||
| 2013 | 1.1 | 1.2 | ||||||||||||
| 2016 | ✓ | 3.5 | 5.8 | |||||||||||
| 2017 | 1.2 | 1.8 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | 1.2 | 1.1 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | 1.8 | 1.5 | ||||||||||||
| Guatemala (StartNetwork): Recommended Configurations | ||||||||||||||
| A = max avg F1 | B = max ERA5 tol F1 | U = uniform (all thresholds equal) | ||||||||||||||
| Return periods | Return periods | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| config_label | Postrera thresholds (RP) | Primera thresholds (RP) | annual_rp | Performance | ||||||||||
| Criterion | s0 | s1 | s_seasonal_rp | p0 | p1 | p2 | p_seasonal_rp | impact_f1 | era5_tol_f1 | avg_f1 | mean_cv | all_cv | ||
| RP 2.7 A | both | 4.375000 | 5.000000 | 3.18 | 4.375000 | 5.833333 | 7.000000 | 4.38 | 2.69 | 0.703 | 0.646 | 0.674 | 0.162 | 0.210 |
| RP 2.9 A | both | 4.375000 | 5.833333 | 3.50 | 4.375000 | 5.833333 | 7.000000 | 4.38 | 2.92 | 0.721 | 0.598 | 0.660 | 0.216 | 0.204 |
| RP 2.2 (Uniform thresh 4.4) | uniform | 4.375000 | 4.375000 | 3.18 | 4.375000 | 4.375000 | 4.375000 | 3.18 | 2.19 | 0.650 | 0.638 | 0.644 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 2.5 (Uniform thresh 5.0) | uniform | 5.000000 | 5.000000 | 3.50 | 5.000000 | 5.000000 | 5.000000 | 3.89 | 2.50 | 0.594 | 0.594 | 0.594 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 2.9 (Uniform thresh 5.8) | uniform | 5.833333 | 5.833333 | 4.38 | 5.833333 | 5.833333 | 5.833333 | 4.38 | 2.92 | 0.588 | 0.588 | 0.588 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 3.5 (Uniform thresh 7.0) | uniform | 7.000000 | 7.000000 | 5.83 | 7.000000 | 7.000000 | 7.000000 | 5.00 | 3.50 | 0.513 | 0.513 | 0.513 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 3.9 (Uniform thresh 8.8) | uniform | 8.750000 | 8.750000 | 7.00 | 8.750000 | 8.750000 | 8.750000 | 5.00 | 3.89 | 0.455 | 0.455 | 0.455 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 4.4 (Uniform thresh 11.7) | uniform | 11.666667 | 11.666667 | 7.00 | 11.666667 | 11.666667 | 11.666667 | 7.00 | 4.38 | 0.429 | 0.429 | 0.429 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| RP 5.0 (Uniform thresh 17.5) | uniform | 17.500000 | 17.500000 | 8.75 | 17.500000 | 17.500000 | 17.500000 | 8.75 | 5.00 | 0.308 | 0.308 | 0.308 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
9.6 Recommended Configurations
Based on the tradeoff analysis above, we recommend the following trigger configurations:
Honduras: RP 2.9 A (max ERA5 tol F1)
- Primera thresholds (RP): LT0 = 5.0, LT1 = 5.8, LT2 = 5.8
- Postrera thresholds (RP): LT0 = 8.8, LT1 = 11.7, LT2 = 11.7
- Seasonal RPs: primera = 3.2, postrera = 7.0, annual = 2.9
- Impact F1 = 0.422 | ERA5 tolerant F1 = 0.633 | Avg F1 = 0.527 | CV = 0.372
Honduras has 17 EM-DAT impact years in 1991–2024 — a relatively high event frequency. With this many impact years, the impact F1 scores are tightly clustered among candidate configurations at a given RP, so impact F1 alone does not discriminate well between options. Selecting the max ERA5 tolerant F1 option ensures the trigger is aligned with actual rainfall anomalies, choosing the configuration that best predicts genuinely dry years rather than succeeding on the impact metric by coincidence.
It is worth noting that RP 2.7 A (both) is a strong alternative. At a lower annual RP of 2.7, this configuration picks up 2012 — a year missed by the RP 2.9 options — with an avg F1 of 0.622 and ERA5 tolerant F1 of 0.679. However, this RP may fall below the target annual return period constraint, implying a higher trigger frequency than operationally desired.
- Primera thresholds (RP): LT0 = 4.4, LT1 = 5.8, LT2 = 7.0
- Postrera thresholds (RP): LT0 = 4.4, LT1 = 5.8, LT2 = 7.0
- Seasonal RPs: primera = 3.5, postrera = 3.9, annual = 2.7
- Impact F1 = 0.566 | ERA5 tolerant F1 = 0.679 | Avg F1 = 0.622 | CV = 0.205
El Salvador: RP 2.9 A (both)
- Primera thresholds (RP): LT0 = 5.0, LT1 = 5.0, LT2 = 5.0
- Postrera thresholds (RP): LT0 = 5.0, LT1 = 5.0
- Seasonal RPs: primera = 3.9, postrera = 3.9, annual = 2.9
- Impact F1 = 0.529 | ERA5 tolerant F1 = 0.737 | Avg F1 = 0.633 | CV = 0.000
El Salvador has fewer EM-DAT impact years, making impact F1 a more informative discriminator. The max avg F1 option provides the best balance between capturing impact events and predicting rainfall anomalies. Prioritizing ERA5 skill alone would sacrifice impact detection without sufficient gain in rainfall accuracy to justify the tradeoff.
Guatemala: RP 2.9 A (both)
- Primera thresholds (RP): LT0 = 4.4, LT1 = 11.7, LT2 = 17.5
- Postrera thresholds (RP): LT0 = 4.4, LT1 = 4.4
- Seasonal RPs: primera = 3.9, postrera = 3.9, annual = 2.9
- Impact F1 = 0.667 | ERA5 tolerant F1 = 0.667 | Avg F1 = 0.667 | CV = 0.705
Guatemala (StartNetwork): RP 2.9 A (both)
- Primera thresholds (RP): LT0 = 4.4, LT1 = 5.8, LT2 = 7.0
- Postrera thresholds (RP): LT0 = 4.4, LT1 = 5.8
- Seasonal RPs: primera = 4.4, postrera = 3.5, annual = 2.9
- Impact F1 = 0.721 | ERA5 tolerant F1 = 0.598 | Avg F1 = 0.660 | CV = 0.204
9.7 Appendix: ROC Analysis
The ROC-style analysis below examines how well ERA5 observed rainfall (at various RP thresholds) predicts EM-DAT drought events. Low AUC values confirm the weak relationship between rainfall severity ranking and humanitarian impact, further supporting the hybrid optimization approach used in this chapter.